In the comments, bear83 points us to this handy timeline for the counting of outstanding ballots in Alaska. When we combine that schedule with this list of outstanding votes, we can piece together (as bear did) the following:
Region 1, Juneau:
Question ballots (511): Friday, 1 PM
Absentee ballots (8,357): Tuesday, 9 AMRegion 2, Anchorage:
All remaining ballots (15,709): Tuesday, 10 AMRegion 2, Wasilla:
Question ballots (2,751): Friday, 8 AM
Absentee ballots (2,431): Friday, 1 PMRegion 3, Fairbanks:
Question ballots (2,362): Friday, 11 AM
Absentee ballots (5,006): Monday, 10 AMRegion 4, Nome
All remaining ballots (3,594): Friday, 8 AM
As I said yesterday, and as you can visually with this handy results map, in the ballots counted so far, Begich did well in Juneau, won a majority of the districts in Anchorage (and ran reasonably well in the districts where he lost), romped in Nome, and basically ended up with a wash in Fairbanks. Of these remaining votes, only the Mat-Su (Wasilla) ballots are set to give Stevens an obvious edge. Overall, Begich’s chances seem good.
appears to be the only area in Alaska that works eight hour days.
I think we got this folks.
Semi-O/T: I was watching the RGA conference on C-Span earlier today and a question about Stevens came up on the panel. The first person to respond was Jindal and boy did he read Arlen Specter the riot act! Apparently, he gave hints in interviews that he would not even consider voting Ted out of the caucus until after the appeal. ‘All these old cronies who are buddy buddy with eachother need to go’ was about the jist of it. I think he is a far bigger threat to the Dems than Palin ever will be.
He wins.. I totally see that happening!
We’ll get to see how Sarah Palin’s hometown voted… Then we’ll see the rest of the state vote differently! 😉
Below is an analysis of what is outstanding for us to keep in mind as these come in division by division. Assumptions (see below) mean that the order of magintude of these moves may be off, but probably not.
Assumptions — votes outstanding will track votes to date by division. 85% of outstanding ballots will have a Senate vote. 35% of questioned ballots will be counted (except for handcount only residuals, where amount was halved).
Table shows House District – Number of outstanding early votes and absentees (combined) – Number of questioned ballots – and the estimated net pickup (or loss) for Begich.
Region I
1 501 0 -19
2 2124 256 135
3 338 0 67
4 319 0 33
5 1881 255 147
33 692 0 -50
34 1091 0 -111
35 904 0 45
36 507 0 20
REGION TOTAL 8357 511 266
Mat-Su
13 573 919 -83
14 583 774 -95
15 589 685 -94
16 686 373 -87
REGION TOTAL 2431 2751 -358
Region II
17 586 461 -51
18 519 582 21
19 360 551 17
20 388 503 38
21 430 467 14 22 579 369 64 23 556 504 85
24 513 690 22
25 451 567 45
26 470 482 31
27 426 496 -22
28 504 409 -30
29 430 554 0
30 419 599 -11
31 443 376 -34
32 640 386 -16
REGION TOTAL 7714 7996 173
Region III
6 1457 439 15
7 680 96 6
8 861 605 81
9 568 109 8
10 427 104 4
11 423 898 -85
12 590 420 -56
REGION TOTAL 5006 2671 -26
Region IV
37 944 179 13
38 449 391 96
39 362 343 45
40 527 400 68
REGION TOTAL 2282 1313 221
STATE TOTALS 25790 15242 276
Based on the noted schedule and voting so far – there are more votes to come in from the Wasilla area (5182) than pro-Begich areas (Nome, Juneau – 4105) today.
Just eyeballing numbers, I’d guess that Stevens would get about 100-200 votes closer today.
The number of Question ballots in Fairbanks is now 2,671, an increase of 309 from yesterday.
Isn’t it past 8 AM in Alaska? First it was waiting three weeks to see if Parnell won, then waiting for Stevens’ jury to hand down the verdict and now this. Will it ever end?
Begich 137,527
Stevens 136,466